Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
